The Economics of Vaccine Nationalism
Some days back, The United States signed an agreement worth $1.95 billion with Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech, securing 100 million Coronavirus doses for its citizens.
In ordinary situations, this would have been completely mind-boggling as countries are not even sure if the vaccine works. But these are no ordinary situations and this situation requires global leaders to be proactive and the need to keep no stones unturned to keep the situation under control on their homeland. Covid-19 is showing no sign of abating and this makes countries to expedite the process of vaccine development.
In order to have the vaccine prepared by the end of the year, governments across the world are betting heavily on the vaccines that have shown promisable results in preliminary trials. This way companies can go full force and start working with a full-throttle speed. Governments are sponsoring the upfront costs that are involved in exchange for a specified number of vaccine doses in the given timeframe.
This way companies prevent themselves from the downfall and the governments get the security that they get their share of vaccine if the test gets successful eventually. This is a win-win situation for both the parties and Governments across the world are following this model.
Germany has invested €700 million in CureVac for a 23% share in the company. UK, France, Netherlands, Italy have reserved their doses in AstraZeneca’s promising vaccine. Here in India, Serum Institute of India(SII) has promised to deliver half the vaccine produced in India. This dire situation gives us a glimpse of the future where for a vaccine produced, countries around the world would line up to get the required number of doses for their citizens and maintain their interests.
However, this approach seems accurate but there is a logical flaw in this proposition.
For starters, no one knows which vaccine would eventually work. Although currently there are hundreds of vaccine under development and the chance of these vaccines in the preclinical stage getting approval from FDA is 7%. What if all the vaccines on which you bet upon turn out to be duds? This is a gamble which countries are willing to take the risk and make sure they don’t miss out on the possible Covid-19 vaccine.
This virus is now not limited to a specific geography and is now a global challenge. Competing for the resource means depriving others of the same. Even if this vaccine is made available, giving it to the most affected is important. Not just morally, but also it is inefficient to provide it to only a small wealthy mass.
Given that many governments are now in bilateral negotiations with manufacturers to secure the doses they need, even before it is known whether the vaccine will succeed, we are now at a critical juncture. Governments have a duty to make the protection of their citizens their first priority, but with infectious diseases like COVID-19 that can only be achieved by protecting others too. By taking a purely “me-first,” bilateral approach, not only do those governments risk ending up with no vaccines at all, but they also expose their citizens to the risk of resurgence by leaving the majority of the world to go without it.
So, we need a more global approach to tackle this situation and to minimize the damages. As Bill Gates wrote, “During a pandemic, vaccines and antivirals can’t simply be sold to the highest bidder. They should be available and affordable for people who are at the heart of the outbreak and in greatest need. Not only is such distribution the right thing to do, but it’s also the right strategy for short-circuiting transmission and preventing future pandemics.”
Then comes into picture GAVI(Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization) a public-private partnership for ensuring that the vaccines are made available to everyone and their latest initiative is the COVAX facility.
The premise is extremely straight forward. GAVI pools resource from wealthy countries and signs a deal with multiple vaccine manufacturers. This is a win-win situation for both the rich and poor countries. For the rich countries, it acts as an insurance in the sense that even if one vaccine doesn’t provide required results other vaccines can be made available, thus acting as a fallback arrangement as countries can get enough doses for 20% of their population initially. For poor countries, it is a lifesaver. This is the only way they can ensure enough vaccine for their people right now.
As of now, 75 countries have shown EOI(Expression of Interest) but this situation demands more global collaboration and goodwill. As the CEO of GAVI Dr Seth Barkley noted
The disease’s cost to global GDP has been estimated by the International Monetary Fund to reach $375 billion per month. Moving the availability of a vaccine forward by just five days will pay for the entire global effort — and we are trying to move it forward by six to eight months. There’s still no guarantee that any of these vaccines will work, but if we want to end this crisis and the suffering, and get global economies back online any day soon, then they are our best hope. That means pooling our resources to invest in as many vaccines as possible, and if successful, ensuring that we have enough doses to secure global impact. Ultimately, this is a global problem that needs a global solution.
The country like India has a great role to play in these tough times. Not just to tackle its own challenge of Covid-19 at home but also at a global level. Indian Pharma Industry is a behemoth when it comes to the production of medicines, vaccines and key raw API’s. This is almost certain that whoever successfully create the vaccine has to rely on its Indian arm to produce the doses at the scale that is required today.
So, to conclude every challenge come with its own opportunities and the wise are those that use the situation to make their mark. The world is right now stricken by this vicious virus and it would be a Herculean task to come out of this but that’s the only way out. As it said with this virus spread that “ No one is safe until everyone is safe”, this is an opportunity for the world to come together and then together go back again to the “Normal”.
Published By
Parth Kulkarni
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Originally published at https://www.linkedin.com.
